Southern California Bancorp’s Allowance for Credit Losses Increases by $5.3 Million Amid Economic Uncertainty

Southern California Bancorp (Ticker: BCAL) has recently reported an increase in its Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL) by $5.3 million during the three months ended March 31, 2023. The change reflects the adoption of a new accounting standard, the Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) methodology, as well as other contributing factors amidst an uncertain economic environment.

Following the adoption of CECL on January 1, 2023

the bank’s ACL comprises of allowances established for current expected credit losses on loans, quantitative allowances based on the portfolio and economic conditions forecast, qualitative allowances including management judgment, and the ACL for off-balance sheet credit exposure for unfunded loan commitments. The adoption of CECL added $5.0 million to the ACL while the remaining $278,000 was attributed to the provision for credit losses.

The bank has noted a slight increase in loan downgrades into special mention and substandard, changes in the portfolio mix, as well as a decrease in total loan balances. Additionally, management has increased the qualitative reserve to account for potential losses resulting from future recessionary pressures and the impact of banking turmoil not captured in quantitative analysis.

The economic outlook has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s actions to control inflation amid banking turbulence.

Southern California Bancorp’s management has been monitoring macroeconomic variables related to increasing interest rates, inflation, and concerns of an economic downturn, and believes it is appropriately provisioned for the current environment.

As of March 31, 2023, the bank utilized a probability-weighted three-scenario forecast to estimate the ACL, which included a base-case scenario with a 50% probability, a downside scenario predicting slower downside growth with a 30% probability, and a second downside scenario assuming sustained high inflation leading to a deep depression in 2024 with a 20% probability.

The ACL process, however, involves subjective and complex judgments and can potentially result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions.

The bank, therefore, reviews the level of the ACL at least quarterly, and performs a sensitivity analysis on the significant assumptions utilized in estimating the ACL for collectively evaluated loans.

Southern California Bancorp’s commitment to monitoring and adapting to the changing economic conditions and environment reflects a proactive approach to managing its credit risk and loss allowances. This will be critical as the bank navigates ongoing economic uncertainties and strives for stability and growth in the coming years.

Income Statement

Financials in millions USD. Fiscal year is January – December. source

Year 2022 2021
0 Revenue 86.01 67.73
1 Revenue Growth (YoY) 27.00%
2 Gross Profit 86.01 67.73
3 Selling, General & Admin 51.43 46.83
4 Other Operating Expenses 12.6 6.71
5 Operating Expenses 64.03 53.54
6 Operating Income 21.98 14.19
7 Pretax Income 21.98 14.19
8 Income Tax 5.87 3.48
9 Net Income 16.11 10.71
10 Net Income Growth 50.46%
11 Shares Outstanding (Basic) 18
12 EPS (Basic) 0.90 0.74
13 EPS (Diluted) 0.88 0.72
14 EPS Growth 22.22%
15 Free Cash Flow Per Share 0.90
16 Gross Margin 100.00% 100.00%
17 Operating Margin 25.56% 20.95%
18 Profit Margin 18.73% 15.81%
19 Free Cash Flow Margin 18.81% 26.43%
20 Effective Tax Rate 26.70% 24.51%
21 EBITDA 23.98 15.91
22 EBITDA Margin 27.88% 23.49%
23 Depreciation & Amortization 2 1.72
24 EBIT 21.98 14.19
25 EBIT Margin 25.56% 20.95%

Note that we may hold securities mentioned in this article. All data is based on recent SEC filings. Even though we have implemented various manual and automatic fact-checking and data acquisition processes, some incorrect information may have slipped through (false positive). Let us know if you find any inconsistencies!